10/25/2026
According to ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, the trucking industry’s ongoing recovery from the recent freight recession is built to last—and it’s being driven by tighter capacity rather than a surge in freight demand.
Years of rising operating costs and falling rates pushed many carriers out of the market between 2022 and 2025. Now, stricter enforcement of safety regulations—including CDL training standards, ELD compliance, and English-language proficiency—has further reduced excess capacity and pushed freight rates higher. Even with Class 8 truck sales expected to rise 14% this year, fleets are mostly replacing older equipment rather than expanding.
While overall freight demand remains relatively flat outside of booming AI and data center construction, and low distillate stocks warn of high diesel prices this fall, Costello expects this supply-driven recovery to have plenty of runway ahead!